Is $100 a barrel for oil a bad thing? As weird as it sounds, I don’t think it is; and do I think you should invest in Big Oil still?
Photo by: GregHickman
DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) – Be afraid. Be very afraid.
That’s the message from two of the world’s most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital’s Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel…
Bear with me here; even at $262 per barrel, SOMETHING else must be doing well to combat it; in steps the alternative fuel folks. The more oil goes up, the better off we are because alternative fuel is a necessity in the future of our planet. I’m not a die-hard hippy, but I do agree that we need to do something about it, and the more oil goes up, $100, $150, $200, $262 per barrel, the more attractive the $150 price tag for alternative fuel looks. I drive a big rig myself and am at the mercy of the pump because I NEED the space to tote around 2 toddlers AND a wifes-worth of stuff. But it doesn’t kill me, I’m a big Greendimes supporter!
As Wired reported in “Why $5 Gas is Good For America,” the higher crude prices climb, the more attractive — and viable — emerging technologies like biofuel, hydrogen and plug-in hybrids become. It also bodes well for other forms of fossil fuels, such as methane hydrates and oil shale, once thought too expensive to develop.
Someone is turning a profit on this until we’ve got a 100% grasp on the alternative fuel. Alternative fuel isn’t going to hit the markets for several years still, leaving Big Oil as our only option for now. The price isn’t going to be diving down anytime soon because of that. Big Oil knows that alternative fuel is coming and they want to milk as much out of their cash cow as they can. They know people will pay $100, $200 per barrel and they’re going to milk it till there isn’t anything left to milk.
Why don’t Big Oil companies join the alternative fuel revolution? Well, if you’re always been rich, and it has been your life blood for a hundred+ years, would you bail out on it when you’re making the biggest profits ever on your product? I’d think not. I don’t have the luxury of knowing what it is like to be swimming in hundred dollar bills, but if I did have that luxury, I’d have a hard time letting go of it as well. They know that there are trillions of dollars left on the table with this resource and they’re going to cash in until they can’t do it any longer. Bank on that; and with that info, I wouldn’t bet against Big Oil for another 3-5 years until alternative fuel can gain a foothold in the world…